Poultry
USDA young chicken harvest came in at 170.1M head, slightly lower w/w but still above last year. Whole birds eased in price, while boneless/skinless breasts climbed to $1.95/lb and tenderloins stayed flat. Wings are holding 17% higher m/m, and thigh meat softened slightly. Turkey prices surged, with boneless breasts up 12%. Eggs dropped nearly 3% w/w.
Outlook: Seasonal softening is slowing, but tariff impacts could shift export volumes. Operators can expect flat-to-lower prices until fall promotions begin—making now a smart time to lock in white meat contracts for menu stability.
Beef
Beef prices spiked ahead of Labor Day, with the Choice cutout up 5% to $378.94/cwt. Ribs and tenderloins led the gains, while strips eased slightly. Chucks, rounds, and ground beef all strengthened, and 50% trim jumped $0.25/lb.
Outlook: Pricing is likely to stay firm through September, especially for premium cuts. Operators planning holiday menus should factor in sustained elevated beef costs in recipe costing models.
Pork
The pork cutout rose 2% to $116.33/cwt, with ribs, loins, and bellies gaining. Bellies jumped 6% w/w, which could affect breakfast and sandwich menu margins. Butts, hams, and tenderloins trended lower.
Outlook: Prices may ease in the coming month as seasonal demand cools. For inventory planning, keep a close eye on bellies as volatility here can impact multiple menu categories.
Seafood
Cod prices dropped over 12% m/m to $3.80/lb, hitting projected lows sooner than expected. Light import volumes could help stabilize pricing in the short term.
Outlook: Prices should remain steady into year-end, but volatility risk persists—making forward coverage a smart move for seafood-heavy concepts.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce pricing surged to $25.49/carton on lighter weights and disease pressure, with potential to approach $35/carton by late fall. Avocados, on the other hand, hit their lowest price since Jan 2024, offering budget-friendly opportunities for menu innovation.
Outlook: Lettuce could remain elevated through Q4, so menu engineering should consider alternative greens. Avocado pricing is expected to remain favorable into year-end, supporting value-added menu items at lower cost.
Dairy
Cheese prices climbed—blocks up $0.15/lb and barrels up $0.12/lb—while butter fell $0.07/lb on lighter retail pull. Cream prices strengthened due to tighter supply. Milk production remains seasonally low but sufficient.
Outlook: Steady foodservice demand will likely keep cheese prices firm through early fall. Back Office users should track cream market movement for potential downstream impacts on butter and dairy-based recipes.
Grains
Grain markets posted modest gains after recent weakness, with corn yield estimates rising to 184 bu/acre. Strong demand supported prices despite the bigger crop outlook. Soymeal rebounded moderately; wheat gained slightly.
Outlook: Higher yields will likely keep a lid on price spikes, but robust demand should maintain price floors. Forward contracting could help lock in stable ingredient costs for baked goods and grain-based menu items.
