Poultry
USDA young chicken harvest jumped to 178.4 million head, up 6.4% week over week and 5.6% year over year, helping cool recent price pressure. Boneless skinless breasts rose slightly to $1.47/lb but remain 11% below last year, while wings held at $1.21/lb and thigh meat continues posting year-over-year gains. Turkey remains significantly elevated year over year due to HPAI-related supply constraints, and egg pricing remains volatile despite a recent weekly drop.
Outlook: Chicken pricing appears to be stabilizing in the near term, which may help protect menu margins. Turkey and eggs remain higher-risk cost centers, so recipe costing and invoice accuracy checks are especially important in those categories.
Beef
Cattle futures moved higher, while boxed beef cutouts softened slightly. Ribeye and striploin pricing ticked up, while chuck rolls declined to $4.82/lb. Ground beef 81% rose to $3.69/lb. Lower harvest volumes continue to support overall beef pricing despite seasonal demand softness.
Outlook: Beef prices remain firm overall, particularly in middle meats. Operators should monitor portion control, yield, and menu mix closely, as even small increases in premium cuts can quickly impact food cost percentage.
Pork
The pork cutout edged higher to $96.28/cwt, with strength in loins, butts, ribs, and bellies. Boneless pork butts increased to $1.47/lb, supported by strong export activity. Harvest volumes were lower, helping sustain pricing.
Outlook: Pork is expected to trend steady to slightly firmer. With retail demand still soft, major price spikes are unlikely in the near term, making pork a relatively stable protein option for menu planning.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock prices rose 18.3% month over month, reaching their highest point since last February. The rebound followed significant volatility throughout 2025.
Outlook: Pollock pricing may soften in March before firming later in the year. Seafood remains sensitive to supply shifts, so consistent invoice review and cost tracking are key to protecting margins.
Produce
Roma tomatoes are holding above $15/carton due to constrained Eastern supply, while broccoli has climbed for four consecutive weeks and may approach $50/carton if Mexican supply issues persist. Iceberg lettuce increases appear to be slowing.
Outlook: Tomatoes and broccoli remain watch items for cost fluctuation. Lettuce may begin easing in the coming weeks. Operators should review yield assumptions and waste controls to minimize produce-driven margin erosion.
Dairy
Cheese prices climbed, with CME blocks at $1.51/lb and barrels at $1.47/lb. Butter increased to $1.78/lb, though year-to-date butter pricing remains well below last year and the five-year average. Production remains strong.
Outlook: Cheese-heavy menus may see moderate upward pressure, while butter remains comparatively favorable versus historical levels. Regular recipe costing updates will help ensure pricing adjustments are captured before margins tighten.
Grains
Soybeans and wheat continued rallying, while corn slipped after failing to move above $4.40. Recent grain strength appears influenced partly by fund activity and policy developments.
Outlook: Grain volatility may indirectly impact proteins, baked goods, and fryer oil costs. Operators should watch supplier pricing updates closely, particularly in oil and breading categories.
