Poultry
U.S. young chicken harvest reached 145.3 million head, up 7% year over year, keeping overall supply well supported. National Composite WOGs edged up to $1.20/lb, while most chicken parts posted only modest week-over-week movement. Boneless/skinless breasts increased to $1.19/lb but remain down 19% year over year, and wings at $0.99/lb are still 48% lower than last year. Thigh meat continues to outperform, with boneless/skinless thighs at $1.26/lb, above both year-to-date and five-year averages. Turkey pricing remains elevated, especially boneless breasts, while shell egg prices continue to fall sharply, now down 87% year over year following flock recovery.
Outlook: Poultry markets are expected to stay relatively stable as supply continues to recover and demand remains steady. Egg prices should remain under pressure, offering short-term relief for breakfast and baking programs.
Beef
Cattle markets moved modestly higher, with the February live cattle contract rising to $236.10/cwt. Both Choice and Select cutouts strengthened, with Choice reaching $360.77/cwt. Rib and loin cuts led gains, including boneless ribeyes at $10.65/lb and tenderloins at $14.50/lb, while chucks and rounds were mostly higher across the board. Ground beef and trim values also increased, with 81% ground beef climbing to $3.77/lb and 90% lean trim reaching $4.05/lb. Overall pricing reflects tight cattle supplies despite signs of near-term demand softening.
Outlook: Beef prices may be nearing a short-term peak as seasonal demand slows and plant closures ease some pressure. However, lower production levels could keep cutout values firm, suggesting continued volatility rather than meaningful relief.
Pork
Pork markets were mixed, but the pork cutout edged higher to $93.60/cwt as several primals strengthened. Loins and ribs posted gains, with boneless loins at $1.31/lb and baby back ribs at $2.68/lb. Bellies and hams also showed notable improvement, helping support overall values. Pork butts softened despite strong export activity, including significant international bookings of boneless butts. Trim prices moved higher, reflecting balanced domestic and export demand.
Outlook: Pork pricing remains resilient even with rising harvest levels. Strength in hams and ribs should continue to support the complex, while butts may remain uneven due to shifting domestic and export demand.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna prices continue to surprise on the downside, setting a 19-year seasonal low after falling sharply year over year. Despite expectations for a rebound entering 2025, rising import volumes have kept prices depressed. While prices likely firmed slightly in January, broader seafood markets remain soft, limiting upward momentum for yellowfin in the near term.
Outlook: Yellowfin prices are expected to remain below historical norms through late spring. Any price recovery is likely to be gradual, with limited risk of returning to $5/lb levels in the near term.
Produce
Avocados were the standout mover, with 48-count Hass prices rising week over week for the first time since October. While supply remains adequate, demand is beginning to push prices higher earlier than usual. Lettuce and tomatoes continued trending down toward the $10 range, where both markets are expected to stabilize in the near term. Tomato pricing appears calm through the remainder of Q1, while lettuce remains more prone to seasonal volatility.
Outlook: Avocado prices are likely to trend higher through Q1 as demand builds. Lettuce markets should be monitored closely, as at least one seasonal price spike is common later in the quarter.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed, with cheese prices moving lower while butter posted slight gains. CME spot butter rose to $1.31/lb on stronger retail demand, even as production remains active. Cheese blocks and barrels declined, with block prices now well below both year-to-date and five-year averages. Milk output is strong, and spot milk availability remains ample following holiday downtime. Foodservice demand is steady to lighter, while retail demand continues to hold firm.
Outlook: Cheese prices may remain under pressure given strong milk supplies and manageable inventories. Butter prices are expected to stay supported by retail demand, though production levels could limit upside.
Grains
Corn markets sold off sharply after USDA reports showed higher-than-expected yields, increased harvested acreage, and elevated national stock levels. Total U.S. corn production is now estimated at 17 billion bushels, up 14.3% year over year, with December 1 stocks at the top end of trade expectations. While ethanol production hit record levels and export flash sales were strong, these demand positives were overshadowed by the heavy supply outlook. Soybeans gained attention later in the week but did little to offset broader grain market pressure.
Outlook: Corn prices may recover gradually if acreage declines and demand remains strong, but near-term markets are likely to stay pressured by large supplies. Any meaningful price improvement will likely take time and consistent demand signals.
