Poultry
Young-bird harvests ran 3.6 % above last year, keeping whole-bird pricing flat while boneless/skinless breasts slid to $2.39/lb (-14 % m/m) and wings inched up to $1.26/lb—still half of 2024’s level. Dark-meat items eased and the large-egg index ticked 1 % higher after May’s correction.
Outlook: Expect the typical midsummer melt, but disciplined slaughter capacity should keep white-meat values from collapsing. Flag any breast or tenderloin price dips in your purchasing dashboard to lock in savings for August promos.
Beef
Live-cattle futures lost 1.5 %, yet the Choice boxed-beef cutout climbed to $395/cwt as 50 % trim set an all-time high at $2.34/lb. Middle meats softened modestly while packers threaten harvest cutbacks to steady cash cattle.
Outlook: Prices ought to crest within 7-10 days before their mid-July lull. Use Back Office margin trackers to spot menu items most exposed to ground-beef inflation and schedule formula buys on lean trim before the peak hits.
Pork
The composite cutout added another 1 % last week (14 % in June) on stronger bellies (+4 %) and tenderloins, though loin and butt values stalled and trims retreated. Cash and futures are finally diverging—early evidence the rally is tiring.
Outlook: Look for a gentle pullback in July, but tariff headlines when the 90-day negotiation pause ends could jolt volatility. Keep auto-alerts on bacon costs and float loin contracts to capitalize on any downside.
Seafood
Frozen cod filets hit a record $4.89/lb (+27 % y/y), stretching a five-month rally as April imports bottomed.
Outlook: Historical patterns say April is usually the ceiling; prices should ease gradually as shipments rebuild through Q3. Hold current inventory, delay bulk reorders until late summer, and use alternative whitefish specs in Back Office to protect plate margins.
Produce
Avocado prices surprised, plunging 18 % w/w to a YTD low and slipping under last year for the first time since July 2024. Iceberg lettuce spiked 35 % yet sits in a normal seasonal band, while Idaho russets have begun their classic pre-harvest climb.
Outlook: Favorable avocado costs should stick around through August—perfect for LTO development. Budget a $1-$2/carton bump on potatoes over the next month and set par-level warnings accordingly.
Dairy
Butter nudged to $2.54/lb on firm export pull even as U.S. retail promos faded; cream remains tight in parts of the West and Central. Cheese blocks slipped to $1.61/lb amid softer retail demand, though milk flows stay adequate.
Outlook: Butter is likely to stay supported—consider forward contracts for Q3 baking and sauce programs. Cheese looks range-bound; lean on Back Office price-variance reports to renegotiate if spot trades drop below your current contract.
Grain
Winter wheat erased its geopolitical premium and soy oil slid with crude despite bullish biofuel policy signals. Markets are braced for acreage & stocks data that may whipsaw pricing.
Outlook: Near-term volatility is high—cost-plus or basis contracts on flour and fryer oil are prudent until the USDA dust settles. Set threshold alerts in your ingredient master so new bids sync automatically with recipe costs.
