Poultry
Chicken production is up 3.6% YoY, and white meat prices continue to trend down. Boneless breasts dropped to $1.86/lb (down 22% m/m), while wings climbed again—now up 28% m/m. Thigh meat is also declining. Turkey prices jumped, with boneless breasts up 5% and whole birds up 10%.
Outlook:
Expect chicken prices to remain soft through August, particularly for white meat. Wings and turkey may continue rising as we approach fall promotions and holiday demand. Good time to update recipe costing for chicken-heavy menu items.
Beef
Beef prices are softening. Choice cutout fell 1% and select dropped 2%. Striploins and shortloins were down, while rib meat held stronger. Ground beef dropped to $3.55/lb, and trim prices declined slightly.
Outlook:
Beef prices are past their seasonal peak. Expect continued softening in loins and grinds, while ribs and end cuts may hold or climb slightly. Adjust your inventory strategy accordingly.
Pork
Pork cutout rose 1% on stronger ham and belly prices, while loins, ribs, and butts declined. Tenderloins fell to $1.90/lb, and spareribs dropped to $1.71/lb. Bellies climbed to $2.31/lb, and ham prices are trending higher.
Outlook:
Most pork cuts will remain soft in the short term, but hams will rise as holiday prep begins. Expect bellies to stay volatile. Now’s a good time to review pork cost structures and supplier pricing.
Seafood
Yellowfin tuna dropped another 8.2% in May and is now at a 16-year seasonal low. This follows a 26.7% decline in April. Imports remain normal but are expected to slow soon.
Outlook:
Tuna prices are likely to rebound heading into fall. Consider locking in current pricing or building tuna-based features while prices are still near historic lows.
Produce
Tomato and lettuce pricing were the key moves last week. Roma prices plateaued near $15/carton, while iceberg lettuce dropped nearly 15% w/w. Avocados continued to soften, but short-term supply issues could push prices up. Potatoes are steadily climbing ahead of harvest.
Outlook:
Expect volatility heading into fall due to tariff changes and seasonal crop transitions. Roma and iceberg pricing could rise again in Q4. Review produce costs now while pricing is favorable.
Dairy
Cheese prices remained stable, with both blocks and barrels up slightly. Butter fell to $2.42/lb but remains above the five-year average. Domestic demand is strong, and export demand is helping keep the market active.
Outlook:
Dairy prices will likely hold steady or trend slightly higher into Q4. Butter could rebound as holiday demand builds. Monitor costs on high-usage items like shredded cheese and butter-based sauces.
Grains
Corn dropped 2.1% despite hot weather, thanks to excellent crop conditions. Soybean oil was the only grain-based item to rise. Export sales were strong but didn’t move the market.
Outlook:
Grain prices are expected to stay soft unless crop ratings decline. Take advantage of the current trend to control food cost on grain-dependent products like breading, fryer oil, and tortillas.
