Poultry
Chicken harvest pulled back slightly week-over-week but remains above last year. Breasts climbed to $2.03/lb, tenderloins eased to $2.52/lb, and wings held steady at $1.73/lb. Eggs remain much cheaper than last year, down nearly 30%.
Outlook: Expect poultry costs to firm as fall demand builds, but new tariff pressures could create downward price swings later in the year. Operators should track recipe costing closely and use lower egg prices to offset menu inflation elsewhere.
Beef
Choice cutout increased to $414.41/cwt, led by strong tenderloin and rib prices. Striploins softened slightly, and ground beef moved higher to $4.16/lb. Trim values were mixed.
Outlook: Post-Labor Day, prices may cool slightly, but premium cuts will stay elevated into the holidays. Operators should review menu pricing for steak programs and monitor ground beef costs as they directly affect burger margins.
Pork
The pork cutout moved lower to $111.49/cwt. Butts and ribs gained support, while loins, bellies, and trim slipped.
Outlook: Pork values are likely to trend softer into October. Bacon and trim-heavy items may see the most volatility, so keeping an eye on daily invoices and price verification will be key to controlling food costs.
Seafood
Pollock prices continued their decline, down 23% year-over-year, but imports hit a historic seasonal low, setting up a short-term rebound.
Outlook: Expect some upward movement in pollock costs this fall, but the rally won’t last long. Plan your menu costings accordingly if pollock is a core protein.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce nearly doubled in price over the past month due to low yields, while tomatoes dipped slightly but remain set for seasonal increases. Avocados leveled out near $30/carton.
Outlook: Expect lettuce costs to stay high into late December, impacting salads and sandwiches. Tomatoes will climb again through fall, while avocados should remain stable—a good item to lean on for consistent margins.
Dairy
Cheese prices held at $1.78/lb, while butter fell sharply to $2.08/lb. Milk powders stayed steady.
Outlook: Cheese values remain competitive, but butter markets could tighten as holiday retail demand increases. Keep recipe costing updated—especially for baked goods and dairy-heavy menu items—so rising butter costs don’t catch you by surprise.
Grains
Spring wheat markets were choppy midweek but recovered, while soybean oil retraced gains and is again testing long-term support.
Outlook: Frying oil could bounce back higher in the near term. Operators should consider locking in coverage where possible to avoid sudden jumps in fryer costs.
