Poultry
USDA young chicken harvest hit 161.2M head, down 9.2% w/w but up 7.8% y/y. Boneless breasts dropped $0.17 to $1.65/lb, tenders slipped to $2.15/lb, and wings fell $0.06 to $1.60/lb. Turkey pricing was mixed, with boneless breasts up 205% y/y while whole birds eased.
Outlook: Poultry markets remain under pressure, especially in white meat where prices have declined double digits m/m. Operators should monitor invoices closely to ensure menu pricing and recipe costing reflect these rapid shifts.
Beef
Choice cutout fell 4% to $385.81/cwt and select dropped 5% to $361.31/cwt. Tenderloins gained $0.22 to $20.27/lb, while 81% ground beef lost $0.28 to $3.60/lb and 50% trim fell $0.19 to $1.47/lb.
Outlook: Beef markets continue to show a split between premium cuts trending higher and grinds/trim moving lower. This creates opportunities to adjust menus and protect margins by balancing value cuts with higher-end offerings.
Pork
CME OCT hogs eased 1% to $97.47/cwt and the pork cutout slid to $111.95/cwt. Hams fell 4% to $100.78/cwt while loins and ribs moved slightly higher. Trim pricing was mixed, with 42% trim down $0.12 to $1.05/lb.
Outlook: Pork pricing is trending softer overall, with volatility across primals. Operators should factor these shifts into menu engineering and weekly financial reports to keep margins aligned.
Seafood
Frozen pollock dropped 10% m/m, extending a six-month decline and nearing a seven-year low. Seafood remains broadly pressured across categories.
Outlook: Seafood markets are weak overall, with little near-term recovery expected. Operators should take advantage of Back Office tech to compare category spend and evaluate whether to renegotiate pricing.
Produce
Roma tomatoes climbed 31.7% w/w to $17.16/carton, their highest since January. Iceberg lettuce fell for a third straight week, now just above $10/carton.
Outlook: Produce categories continue to swing sharply, creating challenges for food cost forecasting. Tracking these changes in Back Office ensures recipe costing stays accurate and unexpected spikes don’t erode profitability.
Dairy
CME blocks gained $0.06 to $1.68/lb while barrels held steady at $1.64/lb. Butter softened $0.12 to $1.81/lb despite holiday production ramps.
Outlook: Dairy pricing remains mixed, with cheese steady and butter under pressure. Operators should rely on automated reporting to catch even small shifts, since pennies per pound can add up to meaningful savings.
Grains
USDA added 1.4M acres to corn harvest estimates, keeping futures capped below $4.30 despite stronger export demand. Prices slipped after testing resistance.
Outlook: Grains remain relatively quiet with sideways pricing expected. Back Office tools can help operators keep portion costs in check and validate distributor pricing against market trends.
