Poultry
Harvest volumes rose 1.6% to 173.4M head. White meat prices corrected sharply—boneless/skinless breasts dropped to $1.97/lb and tenderloins fell to $2.42/lb. Wings held steady at $1.73/lb, while large shell eggs remain nearly 40% lower than last year.
Outlook: Chicken demand should strengthen this fall as retail promotions increase and operators look for alternatives to high beef costs. Tariff uncertainty could add volatility.
Beef
The choice cutout held flat at $414.21/cwt, while ribs gained strength (HVY ribeye at $14.76/lb). Rounds weakened, and ground beef (81%) dropped to $3.90/lb. Trim markets were mixed, with 50% trim down to $1.52/lb.
Outlook: Seasonal weakness is expected into September, but ribs and tenderloins will hold value through holiday demand. Operators should review menu costing on premium cuts while watching ground beef for potential savings opportunities.
Pork
Pork cutout values increased 2% to $113.32/cwt, supported by hams and butts. Loins moved higher, while ribs and bellies softened slightly. Trimmings were mostly firmer, supported by international activity.
Outlook: Lean hog cash prices are trending lower, which may ease pork cutout values. Finance teams should expect short-term variability and align food cost models accordingly, especially on hams and butts.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia collapsed to $1.52/lb, its lowest level in 4.5 years, after import volumes more than doubled. Prices erased all of 2024’s gains in three months.
Outlook: A modest rebound to $1.60–$1.70/lb is possible, but the sector remains under pressure. Operators should capture current lows in purchasing data and factor savings into menu costing.
Produce
Avocados remained steady at $30/carton, while Roma tomatoes dipped again. Iceberg lettuce eased but is expected to trend higher into October.
Outlook: Operators should prepare for increased lettuce costs in upcoming weeks and adjust purchasing budgets where necessary. Tomatoes and avocados remain stable for menu planning.
Dairy
Cheese blocks and barrels slipped into the $1.70s/lb, while butter moved down to $2.01/lb. Foodservice demand lags last year, though retail demand is steady.
Outlook: Expect cheese prices to stay under pressure, with butter supported by international demand. Back Office users should update GL coding and inventory valuations to reflect these shifts.
Grains
Corn export sales surged to a record seasonal high of 2.117MMT, driving futures higher for a third straight week. Prices are nearing resistance at $4.30/bu.
Outlook: Corn’s rally may stall without new bullish drivers. Feed and ingredient cost forecasting should account for near-term stability but remain cautious of supply-side surprises.
