Poultry
Young chicken harvest during the holiday week was 127.2 million head, down 2.8% year-over-year. National Composite WOGs saw a slight increase to $1.19/lb. Boneless/skinless breasts are at $1.17/lb and tenderloins at $1.40/lb, both showing minor week-over-week gains but are down significantly year-over-year (-19% and -17% respectively). Wings are at $0.98/lb, down 48% year-over-year despite a small recent increase. Turkey boneless breasts are up substantially year-over-year (+238%), with whole birds also higher (+30%). Egg prices have plummeted due to flock recovery from avian influenza, down 83% year-over-year.
Outlook: Expect relatively stable wholesale poultry and egg costs through January, supported by steady demand. Monitor disease reports as the primary risk for upward price pressure on supply.
Beef
CME Feb cattle futures rose to $235.27/cwt (+1.6%), and the choice cutout climbed to $356.79/cwt (+2%). Strength is noted in end cuts such as chuck rolls (+$0.65/lb) and inside rounds (+$0.22/lb), while premium rib items have softened. Ground beef (81%) is firmer at $3.66/lb, and trim values have increased across the board, reflecting tighter cattle-on-feed supplies.
Outlook: Tight supplies are expected to keep beef prices supported but range-bound into February as seasonal demand eases. Consider targeted forward coverage on ground beef and trims where needed.
Pork
The pork cutout fell to $90.79/cwt (-4%), with notable weakness across primals like loins, butts, ribs, bellies, and hams, reflecting typical post-holiday demand normalization. Boneless loins are $1.29/lb and baby back ribs are $2.59/lb. Trim values showed gains, offering lower-cost grind inputs, with 118 loads of boneless butts going to export.
Outlook: Seasonal post-holiday demand normalization and adequate supplies point to range-bound or slightly lower pork prices near-term. Leverage promotional windows for loins and bellies, and use trims for cost-effective grind programs.
Seafood
October import data showed frozen Alaskan pollock prices plunged 12.1% month-over-month and 30.1% year-over-year, bringing pollock back toward multi-year lows after a brief recovery. Little upside is expected until spring.
Outlook: Pollock is likely to remain competitively priced into Q2. Consider menu displacement or promotional use while availability and cost are favorable.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce continued to soften, down 14.3% week-over-week and is expected to trade lower in the near term. Roma tomatoes are also trending down after a December uptick. Avocados remain under pressure after extended weakness, though seasonal patterns often show a firming into February.
Outlook: Lower lettuce and tomato costs provide short-term relief for produce budgets. Watch avocado supply dynamics in late January/February for potential cost reversals.
Dairy
CME blocks are at $1.36/lb (-$0.03), barrels are flat at $1.40/lb, and spot butter is $1.30/lb (-$0.08). Milk output is strong and spot volumes are plentiful following holiday downtime. Cheese production is steady, while foodservice orders are lighter. Exports remain a supportive outlet.
Outlook: Abundant milk supply and muted domestic demand should keep dairy prices stable to softer near-term. Consider opportunistic forward buys for butter and key cheese SKUs if price certainty is needed for promotions.
Grains
Markets were quiet ahead of the USDA WASDE and Quarterly Stocks releases. Corn is most exposed to a yield revision risk that could spark a sharp move, with strong export pace and expectations for lower 2026 acreage increasing upside risk. Soybeans and wheat could also react to the reports.
Outlook: The USDA reports are the immediate catalyst. Monitor corn closely and be prepared to act on a tightening view that would raise feed and protein costs.
