Poultry
Chicken output dipped slightly week over week, but supply is still trending upward with Q2 production expected to increase by 300M pounds. Pricing firmed across most categories, with boneless skinless breasts up 17% in the past month, while eggs dropped below $1 and turkey softened.
Outlook: Stronger supply should help stabilize pricing in the coming months, but near-term volatility across cuts will continue. Keep a close eye on menu items using breast meat or wings, as they may pressure food cost percentages if not adjusted.
Beef
Beef production rose slightly week over week but remains down 6.4% year over year, with cattle slaughter tracking about 10% lower. Prices remain historically high, and packer margins are under pressure, signaling continued tight supply.
Outlook: Beef will continue to be one of the biggest drivers of elevated food costs. Operators should evaluate portion sizes, menu pricing, and alternative proteins to protect margins in the near term.
Pork
Pork production is down slightly year to date (-0.4%), with softer hog pricing and modest strength in ribs and ham supporting overall pricing. However, herd and production data came in below expectations, pointing to tighter supply ahead.
Outlook: Pork may offer short-term cost stability compared to beef, but tightening supply later this year could push prices higher. This is a good window to optimize menu mix and lock in favorable pricing where possible.
Seafood
Tilapia prices dropped to a record low earlier this year but are showing signs of seasonal increases as import volumes tighten.
Outlook: Short-term price increases are likely, but a seasonal decline is expected by May. This creates an opportunity to feature seafood strategically while pricing is still relatively favorable.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce pricing is stabilizing near $10/carton, while roma tomatoes continue to spike toward $40/carton due to supply volatility. Avocado prices are rising but still below typical seasonal levels.
Outlook: Produce volatility will continue to impact plate costs, especially for tomato-heavy items. Operators should stay flexible with sourcing and consider menu adjustments or substitutions to manage cost swings.
Dairy
Dairy pricing remained relatively steady, with cheese up slightly and butter down ~2%. Milk production is increasing, and strong export demand continues to absorb supply, particularly for cheese and butter.
Outlook: Stable dairy pricing offers some relief for food cost management. However, increased production could keep prices from rising significantly, making this a more predictable category for planning and budgeting.
Grains
Grain markets were mixed, reacting to policy updates, USDA reports, and global factors. Soybeans remained relatively stable, while soybean oil has struggled to regain upward momentum.
Outlook: Grain volatility will continue to influence input costs across multiple categories, from oils to animal feed. Operators should expect indirect cost impacts and monitor supplier pricing closely.
