Poultry
Chicken production increased last week, with supply continuing to build, but pricing hasn’t followed yet. Most chicken items rose 2–5% week over week, and breasts and tenders are up ~20% over the past month. Eggs dropped to historic lows, with limited downside remaining.
Outcome: Food costs for chicken-heavy menus will remain elevated in the short term, especially for popular cuts. Eggs are a clear margin win right now—worth leaning into for breakfast and prep-heavy items.
Beef
Beef production declined again last week, down 4% week over week and 6.5% year over year, keeping supply tight. While boxed beef prices softened slightly (~2%), overall costs remain high due to limited availability. Imports are increasing but are mostly lean product.
Outcome: Beef continues to be a margin pressure point. Expect elevated costs to persist, especially for premium cuts, making portion control and menu pricing adjustments critical.
Pork
Pork production increased, helping stabilize overall pricing. The pork cutout rose ~1% week over week, with ham prices jumping nearly 9%. Pork trim remains elevated due to substitution demand from beef, while bellies stayed flat.
Outcome: Pork remains a more cost-stable protein, but not across every cut. Watch rib and trim pricing closely when costing menus, especially if you’re using pork as a beef substitute.
Seafood
Salmon pricing declined 2.2% from January to February, breaking typical seasonal trends where prices usually rise heading into spring.
Outcome: There may be short-term opportunities to buy seafood at more favorable prices before seasonal demand pushes costs back up.
Produce
Tomato pricing held steady week over week after a volatile stretch, though swings are expected to continue through April. Avocados increased ~15% due to a temporary supply disruption, and broccoli saw a short-term rebound.
Outcome: Expect continued variability in produce costs. Build some flexibility into ordering and menu planning, especially for high-usage items like tomatoes and avocados.
Dairy
Dairy pricing was mixed last week. Cheese and butter declined slightly, while nonfat dry milk jumped to a 12-year high. Milk production is increasing seasonally, supporting supply overall.
Outcome: Stable or slightly lower cheese and butter costs are a positive for margins. However, keep an eye on dairy mix shifts that could impact pricing consistency across products.
Grains
Grain markets declined last week, driven by improved weather conditions and reduced drought levels across key growing regions. Corn prices dropped below $4.50.
Outcome: Lower grain costs could start easing pressure on feed and, eventually, protein pricing. Not immediate, but a positive signal for future cost trends.
