Poultry
Chicken production continues to rise, now running over 3% above last year, which is keeping pricing softer across wings and boneless breasts. Eggs remain historically low but carry upside risk, while strong chick placements and a growing broiler flock point to steady supply ahead. This is one of the few protein categories currently working in operators’ favor from a cost standpoint.
Outlook: Chicken should remain a margin-friendly protein in the near term. Use the stability to offset higher-cost categories, but monitor eggs and wings for potential cost swings.
Beef
Beef production improved slightly week over week but remains down more than 5% year-to-date, with cattle slaughter still nearly 10% below last year. Cutout values are trending higher, and lean trim remains tight due to reduced cow and bull slaughter, putting pressure on ground beef costs. This continues to be one of the biggest margin challenges across menus.
Outlook: Elevated beef costs are likely to persist, especially for ground applications. Operators should closely track usage, portioning, and pricing strategies to protect margins.
Pork
Pork production dipped slightly but remains above last year, with cutout values rising behind strength in butts and ribs. Bellies are at a 10-week low, creating a short-term opportunity for cost savings depending on menu flexibility. Lower sow slaughter suggests improved supply later this year, which could ease longer-term pricing pressure.
Outlook: Pork offers some near-term cost opportunities, particularly on bellies. More favorable supply later in the year could support better pricing stability.
Seafood
Tilapia pricing rebounded in February after hitting seasonal lows, continuing a pattern of sharp month-to-month swings. Prices typically rise into spring before easing, making timing a key factor in cost management. The category remains highly volatile compared to other proteins.
Outlook: Expect short-term price increases followed by seasonal declines. Managing purchase timing will be important to avoid unnecessary cost exposure.
Produce
Tomatoes remain elevated, while iceberg lettuce is climbing again due to supply gaps during the Yuma-to-Salinas transition. Onion volatility, especially in whites, is tied to new crop supply but is expected to be temporary. These swings can quickly impact weekly food cost if not closely monitored.
Outlook: Lettuce will be the biggest near-term cost pressure in produce. Onion pricing should stabilize soon, offering some relief in overall produce spend.
Dairy
Cheese and nonfat dry milk moved higher last week, while butter and whey softened as milk production increases seasonally. A growing milk herd is helping maintain supply balance, which is limiting extreme price volatility. This creates a more predictable cost environment for core dairy items.
Outlook: Dairy should remain relatively stable from a cost perspective. Watch cheese pricing closely, especially if export demand begins to shift.
Grains
Wheat prices are being driven higher by worsening drought conditions, with severe and extreme drought expanding across key growing regions. Soybeans have stabilized, but overall grain markets remain elevated. This can have a downstream impact on a wide range of menu inputs, from bread to fryer oil.
Outlook: Expect continued pressure on wheat-based products in the near term. Operators should monitor ingredient costs tied to grains and adjust pricing or sourcing where needed.
