Poultry
Poultry pricing moved higher last week as USDA young chicken harvest volumes dipped to 172.9 million head, down 2.5% year over year. Most chicken categories saw increases, including boneless/skinless breasts, which rose $0.06 to $1.32/lb, and tenderloins, which increased to $1.47/lb. Wings climbed to $1.12/lb, up 15% month over month, though still 41% lower year over year. Turkey remains the most inflated segment, with boneless turkey breast prices up 185% year over year. Egg pricing was volatile, with the USDA large eggshell index jumping nearly 40% week over week, though still sharply lower compared to last year.
Outlook: Poultry pricing may remain uneven week to week as production recovers from weather disruptions. Compared to last year, most chicken items remain more stable, though eggs and turkey continue to show elevated volatility.
Beef
Beef markets showed mixed signals last week. The CME February live cattle contract increased just over 1% to $235.50/cwt, while wholesale beef prices softened. The Choice beef cutout declined to $367.66/cwt, with declines across many end cuts. Ground beef prices moved higher, with 81% lean increasing to $3.89/lb, reflecting tightening trim availability. Harvest volumes declined sharply, reinforcing ongoing supply constraints.
Outlook: Beef pricing is expected to remain volatile, with tight cattle supplies continuing to influence costs. Seasonal demand trends may limit short-term upside, but price fluctuations should be anticipated in weekly invoices.
Pork
Pork prices trended mixed to lower, with the pork carcass cutout declining 2% to $93.43/cwt. Loins and tenderloins saw modest gains, while bellies and hams moved lower, including a 7% drop in the ham primal to $81.53/cwt. Trim pricing was mixed, and hog harvest volumes remained flat week over week.
Outlook: Pork pricing is expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, with modest firming possible as freezer inventory rebuilding continues.
Seafood
Seafood markets remained relatively stable compared to the heightened volatility seen earlier in 2025. Frozen cod prices increased 1.6% month over month in October, reflecting earlier reductions in import volumes. Import activity is believed to have recovered entering the new year.
Outlook: Seafood pricing may see increased variability through Q1, with seasonal trends pointing to a potential upward move later in the quarter.
Produce
Produce markets moved higher last week, driven primarily by lettuce and tomatoes. Lettuce pricing increased due to harvest and yield challenges in Western growing regions, while tomato prices strengthened as cold weather persisted across the eastern U.S. Iceberg lettuce pricing remains below the extreme spring and summer highs that often exceed $40–$50 per carton.
Outlook: Produce pricing may continue to trend higher over the coming weeks, particularly for lettuce and tomatoes, as weather-related supply issues persist.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed. CME block cheese prices rose $0.03 to $1.38/lb, while barrel cheese increased $0.05 to $1.41/lb. Butter prices declined $0.08 to $1.49/lb, remaining well below both last year and the five-year average. Cream supplies remain strong nationally, though some tightening has been reported in spot butter availability.
Outlook: Cheese pricing is expected to remain supported in the near term. Butter pricing may stabilize, though regional availability differences could continue to impact costs.
Grains
Grain markets were mixed, with corn and soybeans trading near even week over week. Wheat prices saw a short-term rally driven by cold weather concerns in the U.S. and Ukraine. However, forecasts indicate major global growing regions are unlikely to be significantly impacted.
Outlook: Grain pricing is expected to remain range-bound, with limited sustained upside unless new weather or geopolitical risks emerge.
