Poultry
Poultry pricing firmed last week even with higher production. White meat continued to lead increases, with breasts, tenderloins, wings, and thigh meat all moving higher. Despite recent gains, most chicken cuts remain meaningfully lower year over year and below historical averages, which helps offset near-term bumps. Turkey pricing remains a pressure point, especially boneless breasts, which are still sharply higher year over year. Eggs continued their rapid correction and are now significantly cheaper than last year.
Outlook: Wholesale poultry prices are expected to remain stable to slightly higher through the rest of the month. White meat and wings may see continued firmness, while eggs should remain a short-term cost relief for breakfast and bakery-heavy menus.
Beef
Beef markets sent mixed signals. Live cattle prices softened slightly, but boxed beef moved higher, driven by strength in the loin complex. Ribeyes eased, while ground beef edged higher and trim prices were mixed. Supply constraints remain the dominant factor, limiting downside risk even as demand seasonally cools.
Outlook: With cattle harvest running below last year and packer capacity tightening further, boxed beef prices are likely to stay supported, even into slower demand periods. Operators should plan for continued firmness and limited near-term relief, especially on middle meats.
Pork
Pork pricing strengthened across most categories as lower harvest volumes tightened supply. Bellies and butts led gains, supported by export activity and freezer inventory rebuilding. Retail demand remains soft, but wholesale pricing continues to trend higher.
Outlook: Pork prices are expected to trend steady to slightly higher in the coming weeks. Supply dynamics should keep pricing elevated even without a meaningful pickup in retail demand.
Seafood
Frozen snow crab pricing posted a notable month-over-month increase, interrupting a longer downward trend. While the move mirrors seasonal patterns seen last year, broader seafood categories remain relatively stable with limited inflation.
Outlook: Snow crab pricing is expected to resume a downward trend into the early part of the on-season in April. Short-term fluctuations are possible, but sustained price increases appear unlikely.
Produce
Produce volatility returned quickly. Roma tomato pricing rebounded sharply due to cold weather disruptions in the Eastern U.S., while iceberg lettuce held firmer than expected amid harvest and yield challenges in Western growing regions. Avocado pricing continued climbing and reached multi-week highs.
Outlook: Weather-driven risk suggests continued upward pressure for tomatoes and lettuce in the short term. Avocados are expected to remain elevated into Q2, making produce forecasting and menu flexibility especially important right now.
Dairy
Dairy prices were mostly higher, led by gains in cheese blocks and butter. Production remains strong, but solid domestic retail demand and steady foodservice usage are keeping pricing supported. Butter prices increased despite ample cream availability and near-capacity churn operations.
Outlook: Dairy pricing is expected to remain relatively stable, with limited downside risk. Operators should budget for steady cheese and butter costs rather than expecting near-term price declines.
Grains
Grain markets rebounded, driven primarily by soybeans and soybean oil as markets anticipate upcoming biofuel policy decisions. Export strength supported prices, but large volumes of unshipped sales continue to cap near-term upside.
Outlook: Grain prices are likely to remain volatile but range-bound in the near term. Additional upside is possible, but sustained breakouts will depend on regulatory clarity and export shipment progress.
