Poultry
Week ending June 6, 2026 — young chicken slaughter slipped 0.5% W/W but YTD production is +2.7% vs 2025, supported by heavier bird weights and broiler egg sets/chick placements ~2% above last year. Breast/tender prices have softened (breast at 20 week lows) while boneless skinless thigh prices carry an unusual premium as dark meat exports slump and domestic dark meat consumption is running ~+6% vs 2025.
Outlook: Continue to favor short term buying for breasts while monitoring thigh demand—thigh prices are vulnerable to downward pressure as domestic absorption stabilizes.
Beef
Last week beef production fell 2.1% W/W and 2.8% Y/Y; YTD production is down ~6.3% vs 2025. Cutouts moved lower (Select led declines); loins and ribs weakest. New World Screwworm cases and very poor pasture ratings (matched the lowest reading for this week in 36 years) are key supply risks to herd rebuild plans.
Outlook: Expect continued supply tightness and price risk into H2 2026 unless screwworm is contained and pasture conditions materially improve.
Pork
Pork production eased 0.9% W/W but was +3.2% vs last year; YTD output ~+0.4% vs 2025 driven by heavier carcass weights. Cash hogs were steady-to-firm, but the USDA cutout fell ~3.2% for the week (butt down ~12%); most primals trail year ago levels except ribs, and bellies are roughly 32% below last year.
Outlook: Production should stay above last year into summer, keeping downward pressure on several primals though ribs (and spot pockets) could support localized tightness.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce has experienced multiple supply gaps this season and spiked to a new year to date high (24 count), driving volatility; other items (tomatoes, yellow onions, avocados) are normalizing.
Outlook: Elevated iceberg prices and volatility should persist another 1–2 weeks, with relief likely only once supply gaps close and demand destruction kicks in by late June.
Dairy
CME trading showed mixed results (cheese slight gains, most other items lower); nonfat dry milk near three month lows as buyers delay purchases; butter has remained unexpectedly firm with April 2026 U.S. butter exports up ~73% Y/Y but imports also up ~70%, narrowing the U.S./global spread.
Outlook: NDM faces near term downside risk as buyers wait for lower prices, while butter may retain modest upside risk until trade balances normalize.
Grains
Grain losses largely slowed—wheat ticked up after the KC September contract hit its 100 day MA; soybeans mostly held; soybean oil flirting with a break under $70; corn saw intraweek support early but came under pressure from larger South American production estimates and favorable U.S. rain.
Outlook: Expect choppy trade with a slight downside bias for oilseeds and sensitivity to South American weather/crop revisions that could quickly reverse price direction.
Seafood
April 2026 frozen cod fillet import prices jumped +14.4% (≈+42% over two months) as import volumes fell to their lowest level since April 2013, producing consecutive record highs; initial signs suggest imports likely began to recover in May.
Outlook: Cod prices should ease if May+ import recovery continues, but elevated prices will persist near term if imports remain constrained.
