Poultry
Chicken slaughter surged 10% week-over-week and is up approximately 2.6–2.7% year-over-year. Broiler layer efficiency is up roughly 5% year-to-date. While front-half items like wings, tenders, and breasts softened, boneless skinless thighs and leg quarters held firm. Table eggs eased toward ~$0.50/dozen. Turkey markets were mostly lower, showing recovery from avian flu, with April output up 9.6% year-over-year, though still historically low.
Outlook: Expect continued softness in wings, tenders, and breasts in the near term, while turkey supplies gradually build and may pressure prices lower through the summer.
Beef
Beef production jumped 19% versus the holiday-shortened prior week but remains about 4.3% below last year. Market volatility increased following the first U.S. New World Screwworm detection in decades, raising concerns for herd health and rebuilding. Choice cutout and beef trim stayed mostly firm, while select beef softened. Hamburger products are running significantly higher year-over-year compared to steaks.
Outlook: Herd health risks and rebuilding costs will likely contribute to continued price volatility, with elevated hamburger inflation persisting relative to higher-end steaks.
Pork
Pork production rose 13.6% week-over-week and approximately 4.9% year-over-year, driven by increased slaughter and heavier carcass weights, which pushed nearby hog futures to early March lows. The USDA pork cutout has climbed over the past month, led by bellies, though ribs and butts fell. Retail pork is at a historic discount to beef, but per-capita consumption growth is projected to be minimal.
Outlook: If the upcoming Hogs & Pigs data indicates larger-than-expected supplies, expect limited seasonal upside and continued pressure on hog prices.
Produce
Avocado prices are a significant highlight, with 48-count Hass prices jumping ~80% in two weeks to their highest level since May 2025 due to Mexico’s main crop ending early. California and Colombia harvests are not yet filling the gap, though relief is expected late in the month as a Loca harvest begins. Iceberg lettuce (24-count) saw a slight rebound but is likely to trade near ~$20/carton through most of the summer.
Outlook: Strong buying pressure will likely keep avocado prices elevated for the next couple of weeks, with relief expected late in the month as alternate harvests ramp up.
Dairy
CME spot dairy activity was light, with nonfat dry milk (NDM) and cheese blocks trading lower, while butter saw strength. Milk production is easing seasonally in the Midwest and West. Demand for cheese and butter is mixed, and NDM demand is light. Year-to-date NDM output is tracking nearly 7% above last year, and stocks are rebuilding from historically low levels.
Outlook: NDM prices appear to be near their peak with limited near-term downside, while cheese and butter should see mixed, relatively muted price movements.
Grains
The sell-off across grains continued, with soybeans joining the decline and weighing on soybean oil’s earlier rally. Corn’s drop is largely weather-driven as the Corn Belt enters its peak weather-sensitivity season, with July corn slipping significantly. Downside momentum could push corn toward the $4.00 area despite underlying demand.
Outlook: Weather developments will dictate direction, but negative momentum could push corn toward the $4.00 area before any meaningful technical rebound occurs.
Seafood
Frozen snow crab prices rose 7.6% month-over-month in March, which was a quieter month historically. A strong import season is expected to begin in April, potentially helping to keep summer price gains more muted or opening the door for another downturn later in the year.
Outlook: Expect choppy snow crab pricing through the summer as import-season volumes are likely to temper any sharp price spikes.
