Poultry
Chicken supply remains strong, with production up 3.7% year-to-date, keeping breast meat prices relatively flat. Thigh pricing is climbing, while wings dropping below $1 signals softer demand in certain segments. With chicken continuing to gain share as a primary protein, operators are seeing more consistency in availability but mixed pricing across cuts.
Outlook: Expect stable pricing overall, with opportunities to optimize menus by shifting between cuts based on price movement.
Beef
Tight cattle supply continues to pressure beef pricing, with production down 7.6% year-over-year. Despite this, demand remains strong, pushing key cuts like flanks, loins, and ribs higher and driving the Choice cutout to six-month highs. Futures trailing cash prices may signal some eventual adjustment, but supply constraints are still the dominant factor.
Outlook: Elevated costs will persist, making portion control, menu engineering, and supplier alignment critical.
Pork
Increased pork production is helping ease supply concerns, but rising wholesale prices, especially for bellies, are pushing retail prices to record highs. This disconnect could begin to impact consumer demand, creating a more price-sensitive environment.
Outlook: Watch for shifting demand patterns and potential opportunities to lock in favorable pricing later in the year.
Seafood
Yellowfin tuna prices surged in January as part of a typical seasonal pattern, but the increase is expected to be short-lived. Despite the spike, pricing remains relatively low compared to historical norms.
Outlook: Anticipate softer pricing in the coming months, creating potential opportunities for strategic purchasing.
Produce
Tomatoes remain elevated due to supply disruptions, while iceberg lettuce prices are stabilizing after recent volatility. Limes continue their seasonal climb but are nearing peak pricing. Overall, key produce categories are beginning to level out after recent spikes.
Outlook: Short-term stabilization is likely, but operators should stay agile with sourcing and seasonal substitutions.
Dairy
Dairy markets are relatively steady, with slight declines in butter and cheese and gains in whey and nonfat dry milk. Strong export demand for butter is helping support pricing, limiting downside risk even as trading activity remains light.
Outlook: Expect steady pricing with minimal downside, reinforcing the importance of tracking usage and minimizing waste.
Grains
Grains held their upward trend despite early volatility, with wheat and corn maintaining support ahead of key planting data. Soybeans continue to outperform, influencing future acreage and longer-term supply expectations.
Outlook: Prices should remain supported in the near term, making forward planning and cost forecasting increasingly important.
