Poultry
Chicken production dipped about 1% week over week (week ending March 21) but is still running 3.1% above last year year-to-date, while wing prices have fallen to around $1.00/lb., their lowest level since June 2023. With improved hatch efficiency and strong supply continuing to outpace demand, the broader chicken market remains well-supplied despite minor short-term fluctuations.
Outlook: Stable to slightly softer pricing creates an opportunity to optimize menu mix and lock in lower-cost proteins, especially as supply remains strong and limits upward pressure.
Beef
Beef production rose 3.7% week over week but remains down 12.1% year over year, with slaughter still nearly 10% below last year, keeping costs elevated despite slight easing in boxed beef prices. Tight supply continues to collide with strong consumer demand, which is projected to reach a 17-year high, reinforcing a structurally elevated pricing environment.
Outlook: Continued high pricing will require tighter portion control, recipe engineering, and margin monitoring, as demand strength is likely to keep costs elevated.
Pork
Pork production is up 2.5% year over year, contributing to softer markets, with ham prices dropping to two-year lows and overall pork cutout down 2.3% last week. While supply remains ample today, early indicators suggest future production forecasts may be adjusted downward, which could shift pricing dynamics later this year.
Outlook: Favorable pricing presents a near-term cost-saving opportunity, though operators should monitor forward supply shifts that could tighten pricing later this year.
Seafood
Cod prices jumped unexpectedly due to reduced import volumes during a period that typically sees peak supply, creating short-term pricing pressure. This counter-seasonal disruption highlights how quickly global supply shifts can impact pricing stability in seafood categories.
Outlook: Pricing may stabilize if imports recover, but continued tight supply could drive higher costs, making supplier diversification and pricing visibility key.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce is trending toward the $10–$15/carton range, while tomatoes remain elevated due to supply gaps in the Eastern U.S., with imports still struggling to fully offset shortages. Ongoing regional supply imbalances and inconsistent growing conditions continue to create uneven pricing across key produce categories.
Outlook: Expect continued volatility across key produce items, making real-time purchasing visibility and flexible sourcing strategies critical to controlling food costs.
Dairy
Cheese and nonfat dry milk prices moved higher last week, while butter softened slightly, with milk production ramping up seasonally and indicating ample supply for cheese production. At the same time, mixed export demand and rising freight costs are creating additional pressure points across global dairy markets.
Outlook: Limited upside risk in the near term, but operators should watch seasonal demand trends and manage inventory carefully to avoid cost creep.
Grains
Grain markets reacted to updated renewable fuel policies, with stronger biofuel demand signals offset by uncertainty around delayed import penalties through 2028. Policy-driven demand shifts, particularly around soybean oil, are adding complexity to an already volatile pricing environment.
Outlook: Ongoing volatility could impact feed and ingredient costs, reinforcing the need for forward-looking cost forecasting and contract visibility.
