Poultry
Poultry markets continue reflecting strong production growth, with chicken output running above prior-year levels and breeder flock expansion signaling additional supply increases ahead. Chicken breast pricing is now down 45% year-over-year, while turkey breast markets have fallen nearly 20% over the last month as supplies improve. USDA data continues reinforcing expectations for elevated poultry availability through at least mid-summer.
Outlook: Poultry pricing is expected to remain favorable across several key categories as supply growth continues pressuring the market.
Beef
Beef production remained constrained last week as cattle slaughter continued running well below last year due to poor packer margins. Mixed cutout performance across Choice and Select categories reflects ongoing volatility within the beef complex, while improved feedlot inventories and placements offered some positive supply signals. Weather developments tied to potential El Niño conditions could also influence future herd rebuilding activity.
Outlook: Beef markets are expected to remain volatile as supply constraints and cattle inventory dynamics continue influencing pricing trends.
Pork
Pork production softened slightly week-over-week but still remained above year-ago levels overall. Butts and ribs continued strengthening while belly pricing dropped sharply again, keeping the broader pork cutout below last year. USDA forecasts still project 2026 pork production to reach record-high levels despite seasonal declines later in the year.
Outlook: Strong pork production levels are expected to continue supporting stable overall supply conditions in the months ahead.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna pricing surged 19.5% month-over-month in March, representing one of the sharpest seafood category increases this year. While some rebound was expected following historically weak pricing throughout much of 2025, the size of the increase exceeded normal seasonal patterns. Market activity since March suggests some modest softening may already be developing.
Outlook: Yellowfin tuna pricing is expected to remain elevated through much of the summer despite signs of moderating market momentum.
Produce
Produce markets remained calmer last week as tomato, onion, and lettuce pricing continued easing from elevated spring levels. Roma tomato pricing moved lower again while onion and lettuce markets gradually stabilized. Avocados are beginning emerging as a potential pressure point as Mexico’s crop transition and weaker upcoming supply projections tighten summer availability expectations.
Outlook: Core produce categories are expected to continue normalizing while avocado markets strengthen through the summer transition period.
Dairy
Dairy markets weakened further last week, with cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk all posting notable declines. Milk production remains exceptionally strong as the U.S. dairy herd reaches its largest size since 1993, while weakening export demand is beginning weighing on nonfat dry milk markets. Cheese and butter pricing are now trading well below prior-year levels.
Outlook: Dairy markets are expected to remain under pressure as milk production growth continues outpacing export demand.
Grains
Grain markets traded relatively quietly last week despite ongoing geopolitical and energy market headlines. Corn markets briefly rallied following news surrounding a new U.S.-China agricultural agreement before retreating as uncertainty around the agreement details persisted. Even without additional Chinese demand, U.S. corn exports remain on pace for another record year.
Outlook: Grain markets are expected to remain sensitive to global trade activity and broader energy market movement.
