Poultry
Chicken production softened last week, down 0.6% from the prior week and nearly 2% below year-ago levels, while chicken markets were generally weaker, led by a nearly 5% drop in wing prices. Table eggs were flat, turkey breast fell to 17-month lows, and updated USDA data showed broiler layer inventory in August running 1.5% above last year, suggesting future supply may improve.
Outlook: Poultry pricing should remain relatively contained near term, as improving breeder inventory may help limit any major upside in chicken costs.
Beef
Beef production rose 3.7% week over week, but remained 3.1% below last year, with year-to-date output now down 7.9% versus 2025. Market tone was softer across much of the complex, boxed beef cutouts eased, and July cattle placements were down a sharp 11% from last year, reinforcing ongoing tight supply conditions.
Outlook: Beef supplies are expected to stay tight through the fall, though some categories such as trim may see additional price pressure.
Pork
Pork output improved modestly, up 0.2% from the previous week and 0.5% above last year, with year-to-date production still running 0.4% ahead of 2025 thanks primarily to heavier hog weights. Even so, the pork cutout fell to its fourth-lowest weekly level in the last seven months, and several categories, especially hams, moved lower.
Outlook: Pork production should continue to seasonally improve this fall, but weaker consumption trends suggest pricing may remain under pressure.
Produce
Produce markets saw some movement, but nothing unusual for late summer. 48-count Hass avocados fell 15% week over week, potato markets appear to have topped out from their pre-harvest rally, and both iceberg lettuce and roma tomatoes moved higher, though likely more from short-term bargain buying than a lasting trend.
Outlook: Produce pricing looks mostly stable overall, with only limited near-term upside expected until seasonal shifts begin in mid-September.
Dairy
Dairy trade was fairly quiet, with just 16 CME spot loads changing hands, but most markets were higher on the week outside of cheese blocks. July milk production increased 2.2% year over year, driven by a 2.1% larger milk cow herd, while nonfat dry milk reached 11-week highs on stronger domestic and export demand.
Outlook: Dairy markets should stay fairly attractive near term, although rising feed costs could eventually pressure producer margins and slow milk expansion.
Grains
Grains posted another strong week, with wheat and corn up more than 5% and, in some cases, over 10%. Wheat continued to lead the move higher as Black Sea supply disruptions persisted, and U.S. wheat export sales benefited with nearly 800,000 metric tons booked over the last two weeks.
Outlook: Grain markets, especially wheat, may remain elevated as long as Black Sea disruptions continue to restrict global supply flows.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna was one of the biggest movers in seafood, climbing 5.3% month over month in June after earlier declines. Imports ran above normal in April and May before correcting in June, and with volumes expected to trend lower through November, prices have likely continued to inch higher into late summer.
Outlook: Yellowfin tuna pricing may firm a bit further in the short term, but the second half of the year is still expected to be much calmer than the first.
