Poultry
Poultry markets were mostly favorable for buyers last week, even as supply growth appears to be slowing. For the week ending September 5, chicken output was reported 1.8% above the prior week and higher than the same week last year, while year-to-date production is running more than 2% above 2025. Pricing was mixed: breasts, wings, leg quarters, and WOGs moved lower, tenders were flat, and thighs increased. Notably, breasts, tenders, and wings are each trading at least 26% below year-ago levels, while rising feed costs are pressuring producer margins.
Outlook: Poultry pricing should stay relatively manageable in the near term, but slower production growth and higher feed costs could start to support prices as winter approaches.
Beef
Beef production softened again last week, down 3.8% from the prior week and 10.8% below last year, largely due to the holiday-shortened production schedule. Market signals were mixed, with the USDA Choice cutout higher, Select lower, and 50% trim at its least expensive level in 20 months; 85% trim also rebounded from recent lows. The bigger issue remains cattle supply: pasture conditions are still extremely poor, with USDA ratings matching the worst levels for this time of year in more than 30 years, limiting herd rebuilding despite policy efforts and potential support from Mexican cattle imports.
Outlook: Beef supplies are likely to remain tight near term, with any meaningful improvement depending on pasture recovery and continued cattle imports from Mexico.
Pork
Pork production was lower last week, falling 0.7% from the prior week and 10.1% below a year ago, while 2026 year-to-date output is up only 0.1%. Even with lighter production, the USDA pork cutout fell more than 3% week over week, driven mainly by an 18% drop in the belly primal; overall, the cutout is now 19.9% below the same week last year, with bellies down 33% year over year. Pork trim remains a bright spot for buyers, with a typical 70% pork blend near some of its cheapest levels in more than two years, helping cost-sensitive foodservice items like sausage and pepperoni.
Outlook: Pork should remain a value protein this fall, with trim prices especially likely to stay soft or drift lower seasonally.
Produce
Produce was mostly steady last week, with no major disruptions across the key tracked items. 48-count Hass avocados declined for a fifth straight week and are expected to stay under pressure through at least early October. 25 lb. large roma tomatoes and 24-count iceberg lettuce both continued to rise, but at a much slower pace, while yellow and white onions may see moderate downside into November and red onions are expected to stay relatively stable through year-end.
Outlook: Produce costs should stay fairly controlled overall, though tomatoes and lettuce may continue to edge higher into the fall.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed, but overall pricing remains favorable in several categories. On the CME, cheese blocks, barrels, and butter all moved lower last week, with butter nearing five-year lows, while whey and nonfat dry milk increased, with nonfat dry milk close to three-month highs. Export demand has been a support factor: in July, U.S. butter exports were up 2.4% year over year and set a record for the month, while cheese exports jumped 25% from last year to an all-time high. Even so, strong domestic production continues to keep U.S. cheese and butter prices relatively low.
Outlook: Dairy markets should remain mixed, but abundant milk and cheese supplies are likely to keep a lid on major price increases in the near term.
Grains
Grain markets had another weak week, with Friday’s trade driving most of the downside. Corn eased after the USDA’s updated outlook came in close to expectations, including a 236 million bushel cut on the supply side; even after lower feed demand was factored in, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio fell below 10% for the first time in four years. While the recent rally leaves December corn vulnerable to short-term pullbacks, underlying domestic and global supply fundamentals still look historically tight.
Outlook: Grain prices may stay volatile week to week, but tight balance sheets should keep a firmer floor under corn than the recent selloff suggests.
Seafood
Seafood pricing was led higher by tuna, which was the most significant mover among the major tracked items. In July data, fresh yellowfin tuna rose 11.3% month over month and now sits 16.2% above year-ago levels. After a weaker-than-expected stretch from March through May, tuna has recovered quickly and could challenge its year-to-date high in upcoming August data, though pricing may settle somewhat through the remainder of the year before the usual seasonal spike around the new year.
Outlook: Yellowfin tuna prices may cool in the short term, but seasonal strength could return as the market moves toward year-end and early 2027.
