Poultry
Chicken production continues to outpace last year, with weekly output up 1.1% year over year for the week ending August 15 and year-to-date production running 2.4% above 2025 levels. That said, growth is decelerating meaningfully from the 4.2% pace seen in the first half of 2026. Moderating chick placements and a declining layer flock point to tighter supplies ahead, and USDA has now raised its Q3 supply estimate to 2.9% above year-ago levels, setting a high bar for the market to absorb without downward pricing pressure. On the market side, pricing was mixed last week, with tenders, wings, whole birds, and leg quarters softening while boneless skinless breasts and thighs firmed, continuing the white/dark meat divergence that has defined this market all summer.
Outlook: Near-term supply growth may cap prices, but expect upside risk to build once seasonal demand fades and production growth continues to slow toward year-ago levels.
Beef
Cattle slaughter fell nearly 6% last week, pushing beef output 4.5% below year-ago levels and reinforcing how structurally tight domestic supply has become. July feedlot placements dropped a sharp 11% versus 2025, a signal that tightness is not going away anytime soon. At the retail level, beef prices remain in record territory, running 9.4% above last year overall, with sirloin up 7.7% and ground beef up 10.1%, now 77% higher than pre-COVID January 2020 levels. Futures saw brief intraday volatility following news of a potential import deal via the tariff-rate quota system, though prices recovered quickly by Friday afternoon, with the market treating the news as more noise than signal given the long timeline for any actual supply impact.
Outlook: With placements down sharply and cattle supplies tightening, record-high beef prices are likely to persist and continue nudging consumers toward chicken.
Pork
Pork production rose 1.1% week over week but came in 0.6% below last year, keeping year-to-date output up a modest 0.4% as lighter hog slaughter is offset by heavier weights. Markets were broadly weaker, with the USDA pork cutout falling nearly 3% on the week. Bellies led the decline, dropping 4.6% week over week and now sitting 15.4% below year-ago levels. Hams and picnics were even more notable, trading more than 20% under last year, with only ribs managing gains. On the demand side, USDA lowered its 2026 per capita pork consumption estimate to 49.5 pounds, marking one of the lowest levels in over a decade, and given the soft summer performance so far, actual consumption could land even lower than that estimate.
Outlook: Seasonal trends and soft summer demand suggest further price declines are likely this fall, raising doubts that the final consumption figure will reach current estimates.
Produce
Produce markets remained generally stable last week, with 24-count iceberg lettuce providing the headline after snapping a seven-week losing streak with an 11% week-over-week gain. That bounce followed a stretch in which prices fell nearly 82%, with most of the decline concentrated in early July, leaving lettuce hovering near the typical $10 per carton floor. Prices rarely stay below that threshold for long, and supply conditions across the broader produce complex remain comfortable with no major red flags on the horizon.
Outlook: The market should remain range-bound near term, but keep a close eye on lettuce heading into late September when its typical seasonal rally tends to begin.
Dairy
July U.S. milk production rose 2.2% year over year, driven almost entirely by a larger cow herd (up 2.1%) rather than any improvement in per-cow yields. Cooler weather aided output while back-to-school demand pulled more supply toward fluid use, diverting milk away from manufacturing. On the CME, cheese blocks and butter finished lower on the week. The standout was nonfat dry milk, which rallied to nine-week highs as global dynamics shifted supportively: New Zealand’s Global Dairy Trade auction saw skim milk powder jump 7.6%, and the U.S. dollar weakened to its lowest level against the euro since May, boosting the competitiveness of U.S. export product.
Outlook: If international skim milk powder prices continue rallying and the dollar stays weak, U.S. nonfat dry milk markets are expected to follow the same upward trajectory.
Grains
All major grain commodities finished higher last week, with row crops leading the way following Pro Farmer’s annual crop tour. Preliminary yield estimates came in below USDA’s August projections in six of the seven states surveyed, with notable corn shortfalls in top-producing Iowa and Illinois and soybean yield misses across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. That matters especially for corn, which is already entering the new marketing year with historically thin balance sheets. The combination of lean existing supplies and a potentially smaller-than-expected harvest has meaningfully raised the stakes heading into fall.
Outlook: With corn balance sheets already historically tight, confirmation of Pro Farmer’s lower yields could fuel meaningful long-term upside for both corn and soybeans.
Seafood
The seafood spotlight this week shifts to tilapia, which saw frozen fillet prices jump 6.5% month over month in June, marking the eighth consecutive month of moves exceeding 6% in either direction, though this was the smallest swing of that entire stretch. The bounce followed an all-time low in May and was supported by a counter-seasonal drop in import volumes rather than any underlying demand improvement. Overall volatility has started to moderate as the market moves into its traditionally quiet demand period.
Outlook: This price recovery may be short-lived as tilapia enters its typically quiet season, with a full return to normal seasonal pricing unlikely before 2027.
