Poultry
Chicken production remains above last year, which is keeping most chicken pricing under pressure. Breast meat held relatively steady, but tenders and boneless skinless thighs weakened, while wings moved sharply higher and are now at a 19-week high, though still below last year. Egg markets also firmed.
Outlook: Chicken pricing should stay mostly manageable near term if production growth continues, but wing prices may remain a pressure point and any pullback in supply expansion could firm the broader market later.
Outlook: Chicken pricing should stay mostly manageable near term if production growth continues, but wing prices may remain a pressure point and any pullback in supply expansion could firm the broader market later.
Beef
Beef production is still running well below last year because cattle slaughter is down, supporting historically high beef costs. Boxed beef values softened last week, but domestic trim pricing remains extremely elevated, while imported beef is becoming more attractive as buyers search for lower-cost supply.
Outlook: Beef costs are likely to stay elevated overall, though imported lean beef prices may soften near term and offer some relief versus domestic product.
Outlook: Beef costs are likely to stay elevated overall, though imported lean beef prices may soften near term and offer some relief versus domestic product.
Pork
Pork production is above last year, helped by higher slaughter and heavier weights. The overall cutout improved last week, but gains were concentrated in bellies and hams, while ribs, loins, picnics, and butts were weaker; even so, the pork complex remains below last year’s levels.
Outlook: Pork should remain a relatively favorable protein from a cost standpoint near term, provided litter productivity continues to support supply.
Outlook: Pork should remain a relatively favorable protein from a cost standpoint near term, provided litter productivity continues to support supply.
Produce
Produce markets delivered some welcome relief last week after several weeks of increases. Iceberg lettuce dropped 28% week over week, 48-count avocados fell nearly 20% to a six-week low, and 25-pound large Roma tomatoes declined 16.8% to a new year-to-date low. These moves offer some breathing room, especially for operators with produce-heavy menus.
Outlook: Short-term costs have improved, but produce markets can turn quickly during seasonal transitions, so this remains a category worth watching closely.
Dairy
Cheese markets moved higher last week, while most of the rest of the dairy complex was softer. Seasonal milk production is declining, butter demand is strong, cheese makers are actively sourcing milk, and improving nonfat dry milk exports could lend support, although a large milk cow herd may limit upside.
Outlook: Dairy prices may see some short-term support, but any seasonal increases could be moderated by ample herd size and milk availability trends.
Outlook: Dairy prices may see some short-term support, but any seasonal increases could be moderated by ample herd size and milk availability trends.
Grains
Corn and soybeans posted gains early in the week, while wheat finished strongly. Corn rallied on heat concerns, but prices faded as weather forecasts turned cooler, suggesting the market is not yet pricing in a major yield issue.
Outlook: Grain markets may stay range-bound unless weather turns threatening again, with corn appearing more likely to settle near current levels than push materially higher.
Outlook: Grain markets may stay range-bound unless weather turns threatening again, with corn appearing more likely to settle near current levels than push materially higher.
Seafood
Salmon pricing has been relatively stable compared with other seafood categories, and although prices are still down meaningfully versus last year, the market appears to be finding a floor after last year’s correction. The expectation is for flatter pricing rather than another steep seasonal decline.
Outlook: Salmon prices are likely to remain mostly stable in the near term, with limited downside and a better chance for modest gains later in the year.
Outlook: Salmon prices are likely to remain mostly stable in the near term, with limited downside and a better chance for modest gains later in the year.
