Poultry
Chicken supply remains relatively ample even though producers appear to be trying to slow output growth. Young chicken slaughter last week was up 0.3% versus the prior week and well above the same week last year, while year-to-date slaughter is running 2.3% above 2025. Even so, pricing was mostly softer last week, including a 4% drop in wings, and tenders fell to a 43-month low. On the supply side, the August 1 broiler layer inventory was 1.5% above last year, and pounds produced per layer are averaging 4.4% higher year over year, showing just how productive the flock has been.
Outlook: Chicken prices may stay under pressure near term unless producers make more meaningful cuts to the layer flock and overall supply.
Beef
Beef production improved week over week, but overall supplies remain tighter than last year. Output rose 3.7% from the previous week, yet was still 3.1% below the same week last year, and 2026 year-to-date production is down 5.4% due largely to a 7.9% decline in cattle slaughter. Boxed beef values were mostly lower, with briskets, flanks, and plates leading declines, while rib primals were the only major area to move higher. A major supply development is the reopening of cattle imports from Mexico beginning August 24, with the Douglas, Arizona port active and the St. Teresa, New Mexico port expected to open later this month.
Outlook: Beef supplies should gradually improve as Mexican cattle imports resume, but near-term pricing may remain elevated compared with other proteins.
Pork
Pork production continues to edge higher, but market pricing remains soft. Last week’s output increased 0.2% from the prior week and was 0.5% above last year, while year-to-date production is up 0.4% despite a 0.7% decline in hog slaughter. The USDA pork cutout fell 1.6% to its lowest level since February, with bellies dropping nearly 6% on the week. Seasonality is also a concern: the pork cutout has averaged lower in September than in August in 9 of the last 11 years.
Outlook: Expect pork prices to remain challenged through September, especially for bellies and trim, before any stronger seasonal support develops later in the fall.
Produce
Produce markets were mixed again last week, with avocados easing while lettuce and tomatoes continued to climb. 48-count Hass avocados fell to a four-month low and are now back near year-ago levels, effectively erasing the gains seen in late May. Meanwhile, 25 lb. large roma tomatoes posted a third straight weekly increase and reached a 14-week high, supported in part by heavy rains in key eastern growing regions. Tomatoes may be starting their usual seasonal rise a bit early this year.
Outlook: Avocados appear close to stabilizing at relatively affordable levels, while tomatoes still have room to move higher into late fall.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed, with butter and cheese moving lower while milk powders strengthened. Butter fell to its lowest price in more than seven months, and cheese blocks hit a nine-week low, even as nonfat dry milk climbed to its highest level in over two months. On the production side, USDA July data showed continued expansion: butter output was up 5.5% year over year and set a record for July, while cheese production rose 2.1% from 2025, also a July record. Historically, cheese prices often soften into year-end, with the CME block average in December lower than September in 7 of the last 9 years.
Outlook: Strong dairy production should keep butter and cheese markets well supplied, with cheese in particular likely to face continued seasonal downside into late fall.
Grains
The grain rally paused last week after several strong weeks, largely due to weakness in wheat spilling over into corn and soybeans. Attention now turns to the USDA’s upcoming September Crop Production and WASDE reports, which could be a major catalyst for the market. If private crop tour estimates are correct and corn yields come in below USDA’s August assumptions, it would tighten an already snug supply picture even further. With limited flexibility to reduce demand estimates, the market may react quickly to any meaningful production cut.
Outlook: Grain markets, especially corn, could regain upward momentum if this week’s USDA data confirms smaller yields and tighter balance sheets.
Seafood
Pollock prices continued trending higher, following a similar path to cod. Frozen Alaskan pollock filet prices rose 3.8% month over month through the latest June data, extending an uptrend that has been building since February. Unlike cod, however, pollock import volumes did not weaken materially until June, when they essentially flattened rather than following normal seasonal growth. Supply normalization is expected to be slow, with a fuller recovery potentially not arriving until 2027.
Outlook: Pollock prices may stay firm through the fall, but the market appears closer to a ceiling than to another major leg higher.
